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October 13th, 2009 – Interpublic's Magna unit has released their updated US Media Advertising Revenue Forecast. Although the economy continues to face challenges on many fronts, expectations about the future have improved markedly during the past two quarters, the firm states.
Magna is moderating their 2010 advertising forecast and now expects advertising revenues to decline 1.3% next year. Their previously published expectations were for a decline of 2.1% during 2010.
For the fourth quarter of 2009, Magna forecasts that US media suppliers will collectively generate 9% less advertising revenue than they did when compared to Q4 2008. These figures reflect a moderating pace of decline compared to estimated revenue reductions of 13% during the third quarter and 18% declines during each of the first two quarters of this year.
As previously forecast, the first half of 2009 marked the bottom of the ad-supported media economy’s decline. In this economic environment, turmoil was widespread among media suppliers. Magna states that direct media fell 11% and national media fell 13%, compared to local media which dropped 26%, primarily due to weakness in the automotive sector. Pockets of growth in the first half of 2009 included paid search and online video, and the company expects these media types to lead the industry as the fastest growing major media categories for the rest of 2009.
Longer-term forecasts remain in-line with prior expectations, as Magna forecasts total media supplier advertising revenues will rise by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2% between 2009 and 2014.
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